KANSAS CITY, Kan. In this part of the world, the locals are no strangers to gambling. Moored in the turbid waters of the Missouri River are neon-lit venues where visitors can play blackjack or shoot dice. A number of Indian casinos dot the Kansas landscape. The master plan for Kansas Speedway includes an adjacent hotel and gaming complex, a flashy, glitzy facility that will seem like it’s straight out of Las Vegas and loom over the race track’s second turn.
So perhaps it was appropriate that Sunday’s Sprint Cup event at the 1.5-mile speedway and increasingly, this 2009 Chase — was one for the gamblers. The real pit bosses weren’t beefy guys in smoke-stained suits, but calculating men wearing sponsor logos and sitting atop war wagons.
The big all-in calls involved not straights or flushes, but two tires or four. Seven weeks from now, a driver is going to celebrate a championship in South Florida. But this title will ultimately be won by the crew chief whose gambles work out for the best.
Is there any doubt after Sunday? Of the three Chase races, two have now been won by pit-strategy calls, those gambles disguised as educated guesses that can land a driver anywhere from out of the running to Victory Lane. Two weeks ago at New Hampshire, it was crew chief Alan Gustafson’s decision to stay out on a pit cycle that paved the way for Mark Martin’s win. Sunday, it was crew chief Darian Grubb’s call to take two tires on the final pit stop that got Tony Stewart back in the championship hunt.
“We knew we had a shot at it, and we knew track position was going to be the key,” Grubb said following the fourth victory this season for the No. 14 team. “So we had to do that to be able to get out there and race those guys that were so fast.”
There will always be exceptions like last weekend’s event at Dover, where Jimmie Johnson had the field covered from beginning to end. But given how much better the current Sprint Cup car handles in clear air, and given how perilous it can be back in the field during a double-file restart late in the race, events ebb and flow on track-position gambles.
On Sunday at Kansas, Greg Biffle used an early two-tire call to get out front and lead 113 laps. As the cars approached the green flag for the final restart with 26 laps remaining, the leaders were Stewart, Kasey Kahne, and Johnson — all of whom had taken two tires. Greg Erwin, Biffle’s crew chief, wanted to take two, as well. His driver talked him out of it, and the No. 16 car wound up third.
Perhaps more than ever, the outcome of the championship race rests in the crew chiefs’ hands. Everybody wants track position, no matter how early or late in the race it is, and teams have to be willing to gamble on tires or stretch fuel to get it. Pit strategy has emerged as the defining factor of this Chase — more than horsepower, perhaps even more than driver ability. With seven races remaining and eight drivers separated by 114 points, this is no time to be conservative.
“It just looks bad [Sunday] because we got beat with it, but if you look at it throughout the course of every race, it does come down to that,” Erwin said, referring to pit strategy. “They’re either fuel-mileage races, or they’re pit-strategy races. It’s very, very rare that there’s a race where everybody puts four on with 40 laps to go and the best car drives from eighth to the win. It’s just doesn’t play out like that very often. It is all about how you get off of pit road, and [getting] clean air.”
It doesn’t always work. Jeff Gordon took four tires on the final stop Sunday, restarted sixth, and still wound up second. His Hendrick Motorsports teammate Johnson, who struggled on four tires earlier in the race while Biffle was setting the pace on two, took a two-tire gamble on the final stop — and wound up ninth. Given their fuel-strategy shortcomings earlier in the season, is pit strategy the lone chink in the No. 48 team’s armor? “We just need to do a better job of understanding strategy and [knowing] when to take two and when to take four,” Johnson said.
They need to figure it out, quick. The possibility of a fuel-mileage finish looms for next weekend’s race at Auto Club Speedway, the big 2-mile oval in Southern California. Then it’s on to Lowe’s Motor Speedway outside Charlotte, where the smooth, recently re-paved surface will open the door for four-tire, two-tire, or no-tire calls. More 1.5-mile ovals loom at Texas and Homestead, two of the last three races of the season. There are still plenty of gambles to be made, with the stakes getting progressively higher with each passing week.
“Absolutely,” said Steve Letarte, Gordon’s crew chief. “I think double-file restarts have changed it. With the tire they brought here [to Kansas], there was enough falloff that you could make a decision. It was great. I know you’ll see it at California. Charlotte, for sure. Maybe not at the short tracks, but at Homestead. I think it will come all the way down to the last pit call.”
It’s never easy, being a crew chief. The pressure is always there, ingrained in pit stops and lap speeds timed down to the fraction of a second. Regardless of the temperature, their seats are always warm. But with this car and this championship format, the results of their snap decisions are magnified. Two tires or four tires?
Throughout the course of an afternoon, that gamble can be the difference between first and 10th. Throughout the course of a Chase, that gamble can be the difference between holding a large silver trophy and an offseason full of what-ifs. And they know it.
“Sure, you get a thing in the pit of your stomach, absolutely,” Erwin said. “I’d be lying. I think as much about calling the race, and the situational things that we should and shouldn’t do during the race, as I do about actually the performance and the nuts and bolts of the race car. That’s why we have all those other guys helping out.”
But on those days when it works out, the gambles pay off big. On Sunday, Grubb’s was worth $332,498. Throughout the next seven weeks, some crew chief is going to gamble his way to a multimillion-dollar payday. Like a poker player awaiting the turn of the river card, it can all hinge on one call in one race.
“That’s your job. That’s what they pay you to do,” Letarte said. “We knew that when we took over. I love it that way. That’s why I do my job. Six-and-a-half days it’s OK to do it, but for about a half day on Sunday afternoon it’s the best job in the world.”
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